Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 3.388724 3.976842 4.628460 5.402819 6.296775 7.295187 8.493570
2025-10-05 2.596757 3.418848 4.428927 5.755643 7.446191 9.521614 12.255312
2025-10-12 2.022994 2.934153 4.154596 5.895556 8.299516 11.483791 15.999410
2025-10-19 1.648321 2.597751 3.966479 6.059690 9.150299 13.509039 20.074848
2025-10-26 1.345746 2.284331 3.728724 6.077213 9.753334 15.226597 23.909553
2025-11-02 1.078528 1.961389 3.404430 5.886110 9.982337 16.386295 27.027777
2025-11-09 0.856973 1.663455 3.058516 5.586666 9.969744 17.136915 29.562194
2025-11-16 0.715118 1.473913 2.856358 5.483781 10.245520 18.351837 32.946587
2025-11-23 0.608322 1.326716 2.700775 5.430688 10.585505 19.692317 36.665827
2025-11-30 0.555372 1.274181 2.709977 5.676987 11.486007 22.087608 42.453443
2025-12-07 0.486595 1.174657 2.609944 5.694213 11.952882 23.746344 47.082878
2025-12-14 0.424682 1.077375 2.497448 5.666549 12.322424 25.253944 51.574780
2025-12-21 0.371098 0.990311 2.396367 5.656215 12.743332 26.940216 56.660029
2025-12-28 0.361190 1.006338 2.525368 6.162408 14.302398 31.030812 66.879993
2026-01-04 0.330816 0.965043 2.516918 6.361176 15.231525 33.955737 75.075001
2026-01-11 0.303584 0.926138 2.507362 6.555127 16.173054 37.002605 83.824912
2026-01-18 0.270727 0.864701 2.431942 6.580173 16.733824 39.299444 91.227448
2026-01-25 0.231735 0.776834 2.273757 6.376419 16.733065 40.373743 96.107012
2026-02-01 0.193742 0.682671 2.081542 6.054406 16.402708 40.672485 99.301435
2026-02-08 0.169221 0.624348 1.976499 5.943734 16.576433 42.132760 105.245511
2026-02-15 0.149759 0.577689 1.896006 5.886575 16.877095 43.917290 112.104959
2026-02-22 0.142310 0.570097 1.929031 6.152118 18.051881 47.906244 124.514560
2026-03-01 0.128609 0.537082 1.879020 6.170697 18.568082 50.336213 133.407184